The Singapore residential property market has been remarkably resilient in 2022, keeping its momentum in price growth in both private housing and the HDB resale flat segments. While underlying housing demand generally remained healthy, the limited stock of new launches and resale homes available for sale have crimped transaction volumes. Meanwhile, the residential rental market continued to surprise on the upside with strong rental growth amid persistent demand drivers and tight rental supply.
Despite the strength of the market – with new launches achieving robust take-up rates in 2022 at benchmark prices – sentiment had turned cautious, owing to growing uncertainties, rising interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and global headwinds.
Private home prices slowed in Q4 2022, weighed down mainly by a dearth of major project launches, limited resale supply, which in turn resulted in muted sales activity and moderated growth in home prices. URA’s flash estimates showed that overall private home prices rose for the eleventh straight quarter in Q4 2022, growing at 0.2% QOQ – following a 3.8% growth in Q3. Since the end of 2021, private home prices have risen by 8.4% in 2022.
Private home prices grew unabated in Q3 2022, boosted by healthy housing demand. Fresh mass market condo launches achieved robust sales at new benchmark prices during the quarter, lifting overall prices. The latest cooling measures introduced from 30 September – including the revision of the medium-term interest rate for the total debt servicing ratio (TDSR) framework to 4% is not expected to have a severe impact on the private residential market.
Private home prices continued to rise in Q2 2022, at a faster pace compared to the first quarter, according to flash estimates released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA). This was despite the many uncertainties in the market which surfaced during the quarter, ranging from rising inflation, stock market turmoil and monetary tightening as central banks around the world raise interest rates to temper soaring inflation.
Private home prices and HDB resale prices continued to rise, albeit at a slower pace in the first quarter of 2022, following the introduction of new property cooling measures in December 2021 that were aimed at tabilising the market and reining in buying demand from foreigners and investors with multiple properties. The muted price growth during the quarter came amid a pullback in sales volumes as uncertainties loom.
Developers’ sales more than doubled in January from December, boosted by the launch of Sceneca Residence during the month. New private home sales in January came in at 391 units (ex. Executive Condos), marking a 130% jump from the 170 units transacted in the previous month. However, sales were still down on a year-on-year basis, falling by almost 43% from the 684 units shifted in January 2022. The 391 units sold in January is the highest monthly sales since 987 units changed hands in September 2022.
Developers posted sluggish new private home sales in December, transacting just 170 units (ex. Executive Condos) – the lowest monthly home sales tally since January 2009 where 108 units were sold. On a month-on-month basis, December’s sales were down by 34.6% from the 260 units shifted in November. Meanwhile, sales fell by nearly 74% year-on-year when compared to the 650 units transacted in December 2021.
The pullback in sales could be attributed largely to the lack of major private residential project launches during the month and the year-end seasonal lull. On the other hand, sales of ECs – a public-private housing hybrid – were boosted with the successful launch of Tenet EC in Tampines in December. Developers sold 468 new ECs in December, up from 186 units moved in November. The 618-unit Tenet EC sold 451 units at a median price of $1,381 psf – accounting for about 96% of EC sales in December.
New private home sales remained tepid in November as a lack of major project launches and tight unsold inventory in the primary market weighed on sales volume. Developers sold 259 new units (excluding Executive Condos) in November, representing a 17.3% decline from the previous month and a fall of 83% from November 2021. It is also the lowest monthly new home sales figure since December 2014 where 230 units were sold then.
New private home sales sank to the lowest level in more than two years in October 2022, with developers transacting 312 new homes (ex. Executive condos) – it is the lowest monthly figure since April 2020 where 277 units were sold. October’s sales were down by 68.4% from 987 new homes sold in the previous month, and marked a decline of 65.8% on a year-on-year basis. Fresh cooling measures, a dearth of major project launches, and limited unsold stock in the market have weighed on developers’ sales during the month. Two new projects were launched in October: the 25-unit Enchante in Evelyn Road and landed homes at Pollen Collection in Nim Road – each selling two units.
New private home sales surged in September, more than doubling from August’s sales volume as two new mass market project launches – Lentor Modern and Sky Eden@Bedok – helped to supercharge sales during the month. Developers sold 987 new private homes (excluding executive condos), representing a 125% jump from the 438 units transacted in the previous month. This is the highest monthly home sales tally since 1,355 units were sold in May 2022. When compared to September 2021, new private home sales were up by 18.3% year-on-year last month.
Developers’ sales fell markedly from July to August owing to a dearth of new project launches amid the Hungry Ghost month. Private new home sales declined by about 48% to 437 units (excluding Executive Condos) in August, from 834 units transacted in the previous month. This is the lowest monthly sales since April 2020 – during the circuit breaker – where 277 new units were sold. On a year-on-year basis, new home sales were down by about 64% from 1,216 units sold in August 2021, where the launch of Watergardens At Canberra helped to boost sales then. August’s sales took new private home sales (ex. EC) to 5,493 units in the first eight months of 2022 – nearly 41% lower year-on-year – as fewer launches crimped transaction volume.
Private new home sales rebounded in July as the launch of AMO Residence in Ang Mo Kio helped to lift sales during the month. Developers sold 834 new private homes (ex. Executive Condos) in July, of which 366 units (or 44%) were transacted at AMO Residence. July’s sales were about 71% higher than the 488 units sold in June, while on a year-on-year basis, new home sales were down by 48% from the high base of 1,602 in July 2021. Taking in July’s sales, developers have sold 5,056 new private homes (ex. ECs) in the first seven months of 2022, epresenting a 37% drop from the 8,061 units shifted in the January to July period in 2021. The decline in sales volume was mainly due to the fewer project launches this year.
Private new home sales fell sharply in June as the lack of new launches drove a 64% decline in transactions from May to June. Developers sold 488 new private homes (ex. Executive Condos) in June, declining from the robust 1,355 units transacted in the previous month, where new projects Piccadilly Grand and Liv @ MB spurred take-up. On a year-on-year basis, sales also came in lower, easing by 44% from June 2021. June’s transaction numbers take the Q2 2022 new home sales to 2,504 units (ex ECs), which represents a 37.2% increase from the previous quarter. In the first half of 2022, developers sold an estimated 4,329 new homes.
Sales came roaring back in May after a relatively slower performance in the earlier part of the year. Private new home sales surged in May 2022 on robust sales at two project launches, with Piccadilly Grand and Liv @ MB contributing to about 41% of the month’s transaction tally. In all, developers sold 1,356 new private homes (excluding Executive Condos) in May, representing a 105.5% jump from the revised 660 units transacted in the previous month. This is also the highest monthly new home sales since 1,547 units were sold in November 2021. When compared to May 2021, developers’ sales were up by 51.5% in May 2022. May’s sales took the total new home sales for the first five months of 2022 to 3,841 units (ex. ECs) – down by 32% from the 5,658 units transacted in the corresponding period of 2021.
The brisk sales momentum of good class bungalows (GCBs) appears to have ran out of steam in 2022, after what was an exceptional year of sales fuelled by low interest rates and a pent-up demand for housing in 2021.
GCB sales in 2022 look on track to underperform 2021’s bumper year of transactions. The slower market activity was unsurprising, as the availability of high-end landed houses for sale has dwindled considerably. Also, many prospective buyers and owners are taking time to assess the market amid rising interest rates and macroeconomic uncertainties. In addition, GCBs tend to be tightly-held and owners – who have strong financial holding power – are usually not in a hurry to sell or divest their property.
According to the flash estimate released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), prices of landed homes rose by 2.9% QOQ in Q2 2022, climbing for the fourth consecutive quarter. Overall landed home prices have grown by 14.3% since Q2 2021. As of Q2 2022, the landed price index has hit a new high, with an index reading of 211.3 – the last peak being in 3Q 2013, where the price index posted a reading of 178.9 points. The robust growth in landed home prices is largely led by the price increase in the high-end landed market, namely GCB sales which achieved record-breaking prices over the last few months.
In Q4 2022, the sales momentum in the office property market in Singapore was subdued amidst global headwinds, high interest rates and dimmer economic prospects. The Singapore economy also posted slower growth in Q4 2022, with a 2.2% year-on-year expansion, as per advance estimates from the Ministry of Trade and Industry. For the whole of 2022, the economy grew by 3.8% slower than the 7.6% growth in 2021. In 2023, Singapore’s GDP is projected to expand by 0.5% to 2.5%.
In Q3 2022, the transaction volume of office properties in Singapore slowed amidst global economic headwinds. Besides the ongoing war in Ukraine and growing tensions in East Asia, the possibility of a global recession looms large as the US Federal Reserve continued its aggressive rate hikes to tame rampant inflation. The Singapore economy posted slower growth in Q3 2022, with a 4.4 per cent year-on-year expansion, as per advance estimates from the Ministry of Trade and Industry. In August, the government narrowed its 2022 GDP growth forecast to 3% to 4%, from the earlier projected range of 3% to 5%.
The growth momentum in the Singapore office market persisted in Q2 2022 despite the rising uncertainty over feeble global economic growth and rapidly rising inflation, amid the protracted conflict in Ukraine, China’s zero-Covid stance, and supply chain disruptions. The sustained interest in Singapore office properties was underpinned by tight office supply and the still healthy economic conditions in the city-state. The government has maintained its 2022 GDP growth forecast at 3% to 5%, with growth likely to be at the lower end of the projected range. In Q2 2022, Singapore’s economy grew 4.8 per cent year-on-year, according to advance estimates released by the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI).
Commercial shophouse market activity was relatively muted in Q3 2022, with shophouses in fringe areas leading sales, including in Little India, Joo Chiat, and Geylang. While URA Realis caveat data showed that fewer deals have been transacted in the quarter, the number of deals is likely to be come in higher as several transactions have not been captured. The pool of shophouses put up for sale is observed to be shrinking with many owners holding onto these low-risk assets, while capitalising on buoyant occupier demand for shophouse space.
The commercial shophouse market continued to buzz in Q2 2022, with various properties – including in Chinatown, Little India, Balestier and Geylang – being put on the market. URA Realis caveat data showed that more than 60 deals were transacted in the quarter, though the number of deals is likely to be come in higher as several transactions have not been captured, including the sale of Hotel Soloha on Teck Lim Road for more than $53 million.
The shophouse property market has had a remarkable year in 2021, with 251 transactions amounting to a total of $1.9 billion – a record value of annual sales. Commercial shophouses in Singapore are expected to continue to be well sought after by investors in Q1 2022 as a form of safe-haven asset as global uncertainties rose onsiderably during the quarter amid escalating geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and rising inflation.